What If Europe Fractures – And Your B2B Intelligence Is Not Ready?

How rising US versus EU tensions spelled out clearly in the US ‘2025 National Security Strategy,’ create market moving scenarios – and what global B2B information buyers and vendors should do about it.

Why this “what if” matters now

Across late 2024 and 2025, the temperature in Western politics has risen sharply. The US has set out a national security doctrine, leaning into America‑first thinking and treating trade, technology and capital as explicit tools (or weapons) of power.

At the same time, there is growing concern in Europe about external money, platforms and media influence amplifying populist and nationalist movements, including parties like Germany’s AfD.

Why this is serious

After 1945, Western Europe rebuilt its political systems specifically to keep authoritarian, ultra‑nationalist movements away from power.

Germany is the clearest example: its Basic Law allows the state to monitor and, in extreme cases, ban parties judged to threaten the democratic order, and politics has long been organised around a “never again” consensus against the far right. When a party like AfD, widely described as far‑right and nationalist, becomes a major force in polls and parliaments, it is a direct challenge to that post‑war settlement rather than just another party.

Germany’s AfD is not an isolated case. From Meloni’s post‑fascist government in Italy to National Rally’s rise in France, Wilders in the Netherlands, nationalists in Sweden and Finland, Orbán in Hungary and the surge of Reform in the UK, far‑right and hard‑sovereigntist parties are now reshaping Europe’s politics. For a continent whose institutions were built after 1945 to keep that tendency at bay, this is a profound stress test – and a key reason to take the ‘what if Europe fractures?’ question seriously.

The same post‑1945 logic underpins the creation of the EU itself – binding states into shared rules, markets and institutions so that economic interdependence and democratic norms make a return to 1930s‑style politics less likely.

A visible rise in parties that reject parts of that project should be taken very seriously by policymakers and investors. Far‑right and hard‑nationalist parties are now:

• in government, propping up governments, or
• leading or pressing mainstream right parties
• and being supported and/or funded by external actors

At the same time, the EU and UK are under mounting pressure: war on the continent, energy shocks, an uneven green transition on an increasingly uneven playing field, and deepening public frustration with living costs and migration.

This means governments are scrambling to rewrite industrial and security policies while populist movements gain ground.

This is the backdrop for a “What If” question: 

What if today’s tensions push Europe onto very different long‑run paths (and what does this mean for people who buy and sell B2B information)? 

• Global politics, energy shocks, climate policy and economic security are shifting where capital, factories and talent go.
• The US is signalling a hard‑edged stance, while elements openly support European actors who challenge the EU.
• Europe sits in the crosshairs of these shifts, with populism, US v’s EU tensions and the green transition all in play.
• The European plastics and chemicals industry is already feeling the squeeze: higher energy costs, cheap imports, tighter rules and plant closures are stressing a foundation sector.

What if similar pressures spread across more sectors – and how should B2B information buyers and vendors prepare so that intelligence becomes “Must-Have”?

If Then > What If

Given this backdrop, it is tempting to ask, “Which future is most likely?” and try hard to be proven right. But I think a more useful alternative question for decision‑makers is:

“If Europe moves in one of several directions, then what happens to trade, rules and risk – and would our information still be good enough?”

Three “if–then” futures help structure thinking about Europe’s future:

• “Break up Europe” If powers move back to national capitals, then cross‑border trade and investment face many more rulebooks and frictions.
• “Fortress Europe” If the EU deepens integration, then rules become more uniform and powerful, and the main risk becomes being on the wrong side of a strong bloc.
• “Core Europe” If a fast‑moving core emerges then finance, foreign investment and supply chains concentrate in that core, and the periphery becomes more volatile.

Across all three scenarios, the chemicals and plastics crunch happening now is a practical case study of what sector‑level stress looks like – and potentially a template for how B2B information should help clients navigate.

1. “Break Up Europe” – many rulebooks

There is rising support for sovereignty‑first parties, louder scepticism about Brussels, and governments pulling back from multilateral commitments.

• If national governments claw back powers from Brussels and more decisions on trade, data, energy and industrial policy move to domestic law.
• Then:
  • Intra‑European trade may fall as checks, tariffs and political barriers increase.
  • Firms must manage many different, shifting regulatory regimes country by country.
  • Capital and supply chains become more cautious about cross‑border exposure.

So what?
Cross‑border decisions become slower and riskier. You need to know where rules differ, how fast they change, and how that alters risk and cost for locations, suppliers and customers. Think Brexit turned up to 11.

2. “Fortress Europe” – one strong rulebook

This is the “pull together or fall apart” response: external pressure from the US, Russia, China and others pushes EU leaders towards deeper integration and more assertive use of collective market power.

• If shocks and threats lead to stronger EU‑level control over fiscal tools, defence and industrial strategy.
• Then:
  • Internal markets may be more stable, but external access becomes harder and more conditional.
  • A more unified EU rulebook shapes carbon, chemicals, AI, supply chains and trade defence.
  • The main risk becomes mis‑reading bloc‑level policy rather than national variation.

So what?
The key risk is not fragmentation but being on the wrong side of a powerful set of EU rules: carbon pricing, product standards, AI safety, supply‑chain transparency and sanctions.

3. “Core Europe” – fast core, choppy edge

This reflects how Europe already behaves under stress: a group of states moves first, others follow later or stay at the edge. It is neither full break‑up nor full union, but something in between.

• If a core group integrates faster on finance, energy, defence and digital, while others lag or opt out.
• Then:
  • Markets start to treat “core”, “periphery” and “external” differently for risk, cost and access.
  • Finance, foreign investment and supply chains increasingly favour the core, while the edge lives with more volatility.
  • Some locations gain status as “safe core” hubs; others slip into grey zones.

So what?
You must distinguish between core, edge and external in all major decisions – and understand how a move between tiers (for example, a country drifting in or out of the core) would change your exposure.

These are not predictions. They are structured stress tests anchored in today’s tensions.

CASE STUDY

The European plastics and chemicals sector shows how quickly tensions translate into industrial pain. And make the job of selling B2B information to the market very challenging.

• Energy and feedstocks: higher gas and electricity prices undercut European producers against US and Middle Eastern competitors.
• Demand and overcapacity: global overcapacity and weak local demand squeezed margins just as investment needs for cleaner, smarter production increase.
• Trade and imports: cheaper imports of chemicals and plastics exploded, putting pressure on local plants and recyclers.
• Regulation and transition: complex and tightening rules on chemicals, emissions and circularity raised compliance and transition costs.

Overlay the three futures:

• If Europe fragments, national responses diverge. Some states may subsidise domestic plants; others may prioritise consumers or fiscal discipline. Cross‑border flows of intermediates become more fragile.
• If Europe acts as a fortress, the bloc may protect strategic chemicals capacity and penalise high‑carbon imports, but also impose stricter standards and reporting, reshaping who survives.
• If a core emerges, major clusters in core states are more likely to attract support and investment, while peripheral sites carry greater closure risk.

Today’s plastics and chemicals crunch is a live example of how politics, energy and regulation combine – a pattern that can be applied to any energy‑intensive, trade‑exposed or policy‑sensitive sector.

What this means for B2B information buyers

Think like a corporate, bank, insurer, port, logistics group or investment promotion agency trying to operate in this environment.

On one hand

Higher risk of blind spots – without better intelligence, complex scenarios turn into noise.

• Location and capex: it is easy to back a site, supplier or cluster that quietly loses its cost or policy edge under pressure from energy prices and changing rules.
• Supply security: you can over‑rely on local industrial bases that are actually fragile, as chemicals and plastics closures and recycling failures show.
• Timing: without clear signals, you may exit or enter markets at the wrong stage of the cycle, missing both downside protection and upside opportunities.

On the other hand

The same forces that create uncertainty also create signals you can join up and track:

• Cost and competitiveness: energy spreads, feedstock prices, capacity utilisation and import penetration.
• Policy and regulation: new rules proposed, delayed or challenged; national opt‑outs; high‑profile industrial and security strategies in the US, EU and UK.
• Trade and investment: import surges, anti‑dumping cases, plant announcements, cross‑border deal flows, shifts in foreign direct investment.

If your information connects these signals across the three futures, you gain a practical edge in strategy, risk management, procurement and promotion decisions.

Design Implications for B2B information

A common set of design principles emerges for information buyers and vendors.

From single forecast to scenario‑ready intelligence

• Move away from tools built around one baseline (“steady EU with modest reforms”).
• Design data structures, models and dashboards that can be reused across the three “if–then” futures without starting again.
• Tag data by jurisdiction, rule set, sector and sensitivity so it can be recombined easily when politics or policy shift.

From static reports to workflow‑embedded signals

• Long reports and one‑off decks have limited value in a world where tariffs, speeches, leaks and sudden votes can move markets overnight.
• Intelligence needs to show up where decisions happen: credit systems, procurement tools, site‑selection workflows, risk dashboards, investment committees.
• That implies APIs, alerts and scores that plug into existing systems, not just standalone “insight” documents.

From backward‑looking to leading indicators

• Historical narratives are needed to understand how we got here, but they do not, on their own, prevent being caught out next time.
• Information should highlight leading indicators tied to the scenarios:
  • “If these spreads move, this looks more like Break‑Up.”
  • “If these EU‑wide measures advance, this looks more like Fortress.”
  • “If capital and investment concentrate here, this looks more like Core.”
• Make logic explicit so non‑experts can follow it and reuse it.

From broad to granular slices

• Talking about “Europe” in aggregate hides the difference between core, edge and external positions.
• Data and analysis should reflect tiers to be sliced: by country, region, cluster and sometimes corridor or asset.
• This allows sharper questions like: “If this country drifts out of the de facto core, what happens to our risk and cost profile?”

From insight to decision tools with clear use‑cases

• Anchoring the discussion in chemicals and plastics gives a concrete, cross‑functional use‑case for procurement, finance, strategy risk and policy.
• Information vendors should frame products around similarly concrete questions, such as:
  • “Which assets and contracts become fragile if energy, trade and rules move this way?”
  • “Which locations gain or lose under each EU path?”
  • “Which counterparties become higher risk as scenarios evolve?”
• Buyers can stress‑test their current tools against those questions: would the answers change a decision early enough to matter?

How Substribe supports B2B

Yes you speak to your customers but with respect, it’s always about you.

An independent discussion with an external person surfaces more intelligence about what’s happening in the market.

This is critical at a time when global markets shift like sand dunes in the desert, leaving no trig point to navigate by.

The point of a “What If” view is not to argue whether Break‑Up, Fortress or Core Europe will “win”. It is to make current tensions (US security doctrine, external funding of European populism, EU industrial strain) usable in decision‑making.

For B2B information buyers:

• Treat the three futures as structured prompts:
  • If Europe breaks up more, what do we need to know, and how fast?
  • If it hardens as a bloc, where will the rulebook bite us?
  • If a core emerges, are we on the right side of that line?

For B2B information vendors:

• Use the chemicals and plastics crunch to show how joined‑up, scenario‑ready intelligence might have helped – and then offer the same lens to other sectors and clients.

Politics, platforms and power: the differentiator is not having the perfect forecast, but having information that is ready for whichever “If–Then” path your customers want to model to prepare for the direction the market takes.

This article is intended as food for thought only, and was created by a synthetic panel of experts using generative AI, then shaped through multiple iterations with the author. The author has deep experience of speaking with B2B customers across all major markets globally, discussing “What ifs” – and the need for edge thinking and debate. The ideas were also influenced by wider political discussion, including articles in The FT, and themes explored in “The Rest Is Politics”, to find a setting to pose “What If” scenarios that are grounded in real discussions.