Model
The rules behind expected ARR (xARR™)
Annual subscriptions have a gap between activity and results. Revenue happens whether the customer is getting results or has already stopped caring. There is an 18 to 24 month lag between a miss on product or go-to-market fit and the moment it shows in the numbers, and during that lag the reported figures agree with you.
Expected ARR is the model to close that gap.
Revenue you have earned, separated from revenue you have borrowed.
What a Substribe rule looks like
A rule is a condition, when to use it, and how long it takes to impact performance. Where relevant, the rule includes the range of outcomes, and how to hit the higher end of the range. This is the counter balance to handing over your approach to GenAI, the methodology builds critical thinking for your team.
01
‘You don’t have a renewal until it’s renewed twice. And if there is a material change during that time, the clock resets.’
02
‘The renewal window opens before they have signed and runs through the first weeks. By the time you are ninety days out the customer’s forcefield is up and you are on the backfoot.’
03
‘Usage is not value. If you cannot define customer success as results the customer’s own business cares to measure, you are clutching at straws.’
These three rules are public. There are more, built since 2018, and they hold the thresholds, the ranges and the lag windows that make them usable on a specific business.
Where the rules come from
The rules are powered by Substribe, the independent network of B2B leaders.
Every rule is built from practitioners who run these functions for a living, and tested against what customers most value.
A rule is proven by people running pricing, product, customer success and data in B2B brands.
Where GenAI fits
Substribe built the model, framework and definitions into GenAI in 2023, after collecting insights since 2018.
The rules, the case evidence and the method are the lens. Generative AI applies them, empowering the Substribe operator to sit alongside a leadership team and course correct, using sound reasoning.
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